Is The Bottom In?
Where we're finding hope during these dark hours
Hello OPJ Readers - how’s everyone feeling? Y’all holding up?
Let’s be honest, it’s been rough going here in the land of price-declining JPEGs.
Bags are down and the rest of the world feels it’s time to take a victory lap at our expense.
I recently got breakfast with an NFT advocate who works at a well-known Hollywood institution.
She told me she was hoping I might give her a little inspiration.
Honestly we could probably all use a little hope right now and I think I can give some to you.
First, I told my friend what I’ll remind you here.
At the end of the day, this all comes down to one thing: in 10 years, will more people own and want to own digital goods, than do today?
And the answer is, of course.
Digital scarcity is a real and enduring innovation. When I feel down, that’s what I remind myself. That’s what we’re here for. Don’t lose sight of it.
The market may change, players will come and go, but when all is said and done those who stick around can say they had a front row seat to the evolution of a world-changing technology.
And I believe there’s even more reason to feel positive… BUT, before we can climb out of this hole, we need to climb a little further into it…
Strap in and as always… this is not financial advice!
STATE OF THE MARKET TODAY
So you’re feeling as down as your mid-rare Ape…
Well, anon, we don’t blame you. The market is bleak.
Daily volume, active wallets, and sales counts are all hitting new lows.
Prices are hitting new lows and trending lower…
Your favorite influencers (or villains) are leaving.
OSF and Mando kicked things off by famously selling 71 Apes to blur bids. This was a big brain move as they essentially sold the top at 78 ETH.
MachiBigBrother lost 5,000 ETH to Blur farming, and after Blur postponed their Season 2 drop, MachiBigBrother rage quit, leaving a big loss of liquidity in the Bored Ape walls.
OG Bored Ape holder Franklin also left and deleted his account after being scammed and losing money on Rollbit and Blur farming
J1mmy.eth, long time Ape holder also sold some apes for taxes
VC investment in web3 is down big.
VC funding in crypto is the lowest since November 2020. Interesting to see that the top of the funding rounds corresponded with the top of the market (May 2021, November 2021)
Brands are leaving
And this is, of course, on top of the beating we’ve taken from the media, regulators, and members of Congress – some of which we definitely deserve, given the who’s who of grifters and cheats we’ve managed to produce and enable in this industry.
All around… morale is as low as we’ve seen it.
And yet, it is precisely because of this state of affairs that now is the time to be hopeful.
Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.
It’s an overused Warren Buffett quote, but its brilliance is not in quoting it, but in being able to live by it.
So here we are… reasons to be hopeful.
1. There is still liquidity
Look, we get it. Watching $PEPE run up 3,000,000% (that’s right, 3-fucking-million percent) in the span of the week is cold comfort if you’re watching your Nakamigos fall 40% in the same time period, but the truth is you should take comfort in it.
A $130 million market cap for a coin that just launched this month means one thing: liquidity and newly minted millionaires.
And not just any millionaires… the degeniest millionaires. Folks who are at least as weird as the rest of us - willing to throw money at shitcoins like pulling slots at a casino.
And, of course, like junkies chasing a high, degens quickly followed up $PEPE with $WOJACK, (which ran up 35,000%), $CHAD, and $HAROLD (the quality drops off quickly…)
Which could be good for NFT fans as…
2. Common wisdom says: NFTs are the bottom of the funnel
While you may have been sad to miss such no-brainer investments like *checks notes* $WOJACK 😂 there’s reason to think NFTs could be next.
Over the past several years, the cycle of trading has gone: 1. bitcoin moves >> 2. ethereum moves >> 3. altcoins / shitcoins / memecoins move >> 4. JPEGs move.
While it can suck to be at the bottom of the funnel, it at least means we may have something to look forward to while we continue to watch 1, 2, and 3 play out.
3. When it can’t go down anymore… it goes up
While this might sound… uselessly obvious… it is, in fact, the most important point of all.